Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CD Lugo B vs Atlético Arnoia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

CD Lugo B
CD Lugo B
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Arnoia
Atlético Arnoia
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Campo de fútbol de Mosteiro-Pol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CD Lugo B63%
×Draw24%
Atlético Arnoia13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Lugo B
1.68
Atlético Arnoia
0.61

CD Lugo B creates 175% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 16 away

creates per match

CD Lugo B
1.48
Atlético Arnoia
0.44

allows per match

CD Lugo B
0.78
Atlético Arnoia
1.88

finishing

CD Lugo B+0.00on par
Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lugo B ↓

Atlético Arnoia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CD Lugo B or draw
87%
CD Lugo B or Atlético Arnoia
76%
Draw or Atlético Arnoia
37%

Winning margin

CD Lugo B wins by 2+
36%
Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CD Lugo B 1+ goals
81%
CD Lugo B 2+ goals
50%
CD Lugo B 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals
46%
Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals
13%
Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)
83%
Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lugo B at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Atlético Arnoia away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lugo B attack 1.48 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.68

Atlético Arnoia attack 0.44 + CD Lugo B defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CD Lugo B scores more
63%
level
24%
Atlético Arnoia scores more
13%

CD Lugo B at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CD Lugo B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CD Lugo B 2 – 0 Atlético Arnoia

CD Lugo B beat Atlético Arnoia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Mosteiro-Pol in Pol.