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Atlético Arnoia vs CD Lugo B — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arnoia
Atlético Arnoia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CD Lugo B
CD Lugo B
11/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Campo de fútbol da Queixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Arnoia32%
×Draw26%
CD Lugo B41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arnoia
1.20
CD Lugo B
1.39

CD Lugo B creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 94 away

creates per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.13
CD Lugo B
1.28

allows per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.50
CD Lugo B
1.27

finishing

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par
CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arnoia ↓

CD Lugo B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Arnoia or draw
59%
Atlético Arnoia or CD Lugo B
74%
Draw or CD Lugo B
68%

Winning margin

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+
13%
CD Lugo B wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals
12%
CD Lugo B 1+ goals
75%
CD Lugo B 2+ goals
40%
CD Lugo B 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)
44%
CD Lugo B (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arnoia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

CD Lugo B away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arnoia attack 1.13 + CD Lugo B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

CD Lugo B attack 1.28 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Arnoia scores more
32%
level
26%
CD Lugo B scores more
41%

CD Lugo B at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CD Lugo B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Arnoia 0–1 CD Lugo B

CD Lugo B beat Atlético Arnoia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol da Queixeira in A Arnoia.