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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs CA Furrial — Segunda División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarezadvanced
FT
1 – 0
CA Furrial
CA Furrial
11/2/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Reinaldo Melo Matheus (Barinas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez54%
×Draw24%
CA Furrial22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.71
CA Furrial
0.98

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 74% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 33 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.77
CA Furrial
0.91

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.05
CA Furrial
1.64

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
CA Furrial+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

CA Furrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
78%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or CA Furrial
76%
Draw or CA Furrial
46%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
30%
CA Furrial wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
82%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
51%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
24%
CA Furrial 1+ goals
62%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
26%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
72%
CA Furrial (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

CA Furrial away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.77 + CA Furrial defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

CA Furrial attack 0.91 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
54%
level
24%
CA Furrial scores more
22%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1 – 0 CA Furrial

CD Hermanos Colmenarez beat CA Furrial 1-0 in Segunda División on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Reinaldo Melo Matheus (Barinas).