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CA Furrial vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Segunda División 2018

CA Furrial
CA Furrial
Pens
1 – 0
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarezadvanced
11/8/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial36%
×Draw25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Furrial
1.42
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 37 away

creates per match

CA Furrial
1.19
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.49

allows per match

CA Furrial
1.52
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.65

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw
61%
CA Furrial or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
75%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
64%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+
17%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals
76%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
41%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
17%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
78%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
44%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)
48%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CA Furrial scores more
36%
level
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
39%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA Furrial vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez

CA Furrial beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1-0 in Segunda División on November 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).