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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CANC
21:00
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
11/3/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Play-offs - 2Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez44%
×Draw26%
Atletico Venezuela30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48
Atletico Venezuela
1.17

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 26% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 60 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.44
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.31
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
70%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Atletico Venezuela
74%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
56%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
22%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
77%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
43%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
60%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
44%
level
26%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
30%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Atletico Venezuela — Match Preview

CD Hermanos Colmenarez face Atletico Venezuela on November 3, 2021 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez host Atletico Venezuela at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.