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Atletico Venezuela vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
CANC
19:00
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
11/23/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Play-offs - 7Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Venezuela43%
×Draw27%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.39
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.11

Atletico Venezuela creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 64 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.98

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
70%
Atletico Venezuela or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
73%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
57%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
20%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
16%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
67%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
30%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
59%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
43%
level
27%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
30%

Atletico Venezuela at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico Venezuela host CD Hermanos Colmenarez

November 23, 2021: Atletico Venezuela take on CD Hermanos Colmenarez in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atletico Venezuela host CD Hermanos Colmenarez at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.