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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Aragua FC — Primera División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aragua FC
Aragua FC
11/6/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Play-offs - 3Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez42%
×Draw26%
Aragua FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.39
Aragua FC
1.18

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 79 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.44
Aragua FC
1.04

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.31
Aragua FC
1.34

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Aragua FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Aragua FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
68%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Aragua FC
74%
Draw or Aragua FC
58%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
20%
Aragua FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
75%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
40%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
16%
Aragua FC 1+ goals
69%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
33%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
57%
Aragua FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Aragua FC away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Aragua FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aragua FC attack 1.04 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
42%
level
26%
Aragua FC scores more
32%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1–0 Aragua FC

CD Hermanos Colmenarez beat Aragua FC 1-0 in Primera División on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.