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Aragua FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Primera División 2018

Aragua FC
Aragua FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
11/27/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Play-offs - 8Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Aragua FC43%
×Draw29%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragua FC
1.22
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.93

Aragua FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 64 away

creates per match

Aragua FC
0.96
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.98

allows per match

Aragua FC
0.87
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw
72%
Aragua FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
71%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
57%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+
19%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals
70%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
34%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
12%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
61%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
24%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)
60%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 0.96 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.22

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Aragua FC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aragua FC scores more
43%
level
29%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
28%

Aragua FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aragua FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aragua FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Aragua FC beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1-0 in Primera División on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez in Maracay.