CD Arabe Unido 2–1 Atlético Chiriquí

CD Arabe Unido

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Chiriquí

9/16/2023

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 9Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

CD Arabe Unido55%

×Draw26%

Atlético Chiriquí19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Arabe UnidoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Chiriquí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.78

CD Arabe Unido

1.51

Atlético Chiriquí

0.78

CD Arabe Unido creates 94% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 66 away

1.05

creates per match

0.65

0.90

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

CD Arabe Unido

1.05

Atlético Chiriquí

0.65

allows per match

CD Arabe Unido

0.90

Atlético Chiriquí

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Arabe Unido+0.00on par

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Arabe Unido ↓

Atlético Chiriquí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CD Arabe Unido or draw

81%

CD Arabe Unido or Atlético Chiriquí

74%

Draw or Atlético Chiriquí

45%

Winning margin

CD Arabe Unido wins by 2+

28%

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CD Arabe Unido 1+ goals

78%

CD Arabe Unido 2+ goals

44%

CD Arabe Unido 3+ goals

19%

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals

54%

Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals

18%

Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CD Arabe Unido (draw refunded)

74%

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Arabe Unido at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.90 · 125 matches

Atlético Chiriquí away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.97 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Arabe Unido attack 1.05 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.51

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.65 + CD Arabe Unido defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CD Arabe Unido scores more

55%

level

26%

Atlético Chiriquí scores more

19%

CD Arabe Unido at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CD Arabe Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff