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Atlético Chiriquí vs CD Arabe Unido — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Atlético Chiriquí
Atlético Chiriquí
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido
3/27/2022Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 9Estadio San Cristóbal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Chiriquí31%
×Draw28%
CD Arabe Unido41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Chiriquí
1.06
CD Arabe Unido
1.25

CD Arabe Unido creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 130 away

creates per match

Atlético Chiriquí
0.99
CD Arabe Unido
0.95

allows per match

Atlético Chiriquí
1.54
CD Arabe Unido
1.12

finishing

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par
CD Arabe Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Chiriquí ↓

CD Arabe Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Chiriquí or draw
59%
Atlético Chiriquí or CD Arabe Unido
72%
Draw or CD Arabe Unido
69%

Winning margin

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+
12%
CD Arabe Unido wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals
9%
CD Arabe Unido 1+ goals
71%
CD Arabe Unido 2+ goals
36%
CD Arabe Unido 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)
44%
CD Arabe Unido (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Chiriquí at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

CD Arabe Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.99 + CD Arabe Unido defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

CD Arabe Unido attack 0.95 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Chiriquí scores more
31%
level
28%
CD Arabe Unido scores more
41%

CD Arabe Unido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CD Arabe Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Chiriquí vs CD Arabe Unido

Atlético Chiriquí beat CD Arabe Unido 1-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Cristóbal in Ciudad de David.