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Cavese vs Ardea — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Cavese
Cavese
FT
2 – 3
Ardea
Ardea
3/17/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 27Stadio Comunale Simonetta Lamberti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cavese50%
×Draw25%
Ardea25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavese
1.56
Ardea
1.02

Cavese creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cavese
1.71
Ardea
1.29

allows per match

Cavese
0.76
Ardea
1.41

finishing

Cavese+0.00on par
Ardea+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavese ↓

Ardea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cavese or draw
75%
Cavese or Ardea
75%
Draw or Ardea
50%

Winning margin

Cavese wins by 2+
26%
Ardea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cavese 1+ goals
79%
Cavese 2+ goals
46%
Cavese 3+ goals
21%
Ardea 1+ goals
64%
Ardea 2+ goals
27%
Ardea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cavese (draw refunded)
67%
Ardea (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavese at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Ardea away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavese attack 1.71 + Ardea defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ardea attack 1.29 + Cavese defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cavese scores more
50%
level
25%
Ardea scores more
25%

Cavese at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Cavese 2–3 Ardea

Ardea beat Cavese 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Simonetta Lamberti in Cava de' Tirreni.