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Ardea vs Cavese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ardea
Ardea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cavese
Cavese
11/5/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Marco Mazzucchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ardea19%
×Draw27%
Cavese53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ardea
0.73
Cavese
1.42

Cavese creates 95% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ardea
0.82
Cavese
1.65

allows per match

Ardea
1.18
Cavese
0.65

finishing

Ardea+0.00on par
Cavese+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardea ↓

Cavese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ardea or draw
47%
Ardea or Cavese
73%
Draw or Cavese
81%

Winning margin

Ardea wins by 2+
5%
Cavese wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Ardea 1+ goals
52%
Ardea 2+ goals
17%
Ardea 3+ goals
4%
Cavese 1+ goals
76%
Cavese 2+ goals
41%
Cavese 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ardea (draw refunded)
26%
Cavese (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardea at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Cavese away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardea attack 0.82 + Cavese defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Cavese attack 1.65 + Ardea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ardea scores more
19%
level
27%
Cavese scores more
53%

Cavese at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ardea 0–0 Cavese

Ardea and Cavese drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Mazzucchi in Ardea.