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Cattolica vs Caldiero Terme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cattolica
Cattolica
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
2/13/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio Giorgio Calbi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cattolica23%
×Draw26%
Caldiero Terme51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cattolica
0.92
Caldiero Terme
1.52

Caldiero Terme creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Cattolica
0.65
Caldiero Terme
1.34

allows per match

Cattolica
1.71
Caldiero Terme
1.19

finishing

Cattolica+0.00on par
Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cattolica ↓

Caldiero Terme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cattolica or draw
49%
Cattolica or Caldiero Terme
74%
Draw or Caldiero Terme
77%

Winning margin

Cattolica wins by 2+
8%
Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Cattolica 1+ goals
60%
Cattolica 2+ goals
23%
Cattolica 3+ goals
7%
Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
78%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
45%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cattolica (draw refunded)
31%
Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cattolica at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cattolica attack 0.65 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.92

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + Cattolica defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cattolica scores more
23%
level
26%
Caldiero Terme scores more
51%

Caldiero Terme at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cattolica 1–2 Caldiero Terme

Caldiero Terme beat Cattolica 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Giorgio Calbi in Cattolica.