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Caldiero Terme vs Cattolica — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
FT
3 – 0
Cattolica
Cattolica
L. Boldini 84'
L. Zerbato 81'
A. Filiciotto 21'
10/3/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 3Stadio Comunale di Caldiero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Caldiero Terme53%
×Draw25%
Cattolica22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.58
Cattolica
0.92

Caldiero Terme creates 72% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
Cattolica
0.53

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
Cattolica
1.88

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
Cattolica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Cattolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
78%
Caldiero Terme or Cattolica
75%
Draw or Cattolica
47%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
28%
Cattolica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
79%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
47%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
21%
Cattolica 1+ goals
60%
Cattolica 2+ goals
23%
Cattolica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
71%
Cattolica (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Cattolica away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Cattolica defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cattolica attack 0.53 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
53%
level
25%
Cattolica scores more
22%

Caldiero Terme at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Filiciotto
81'
L. Zerbato
84'
L. Boldini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Caldiero Terme 3–0 Cattolica

Caldiero Terme beat Cattolica 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 3, 2021.

Goals: A. Filiciotto (21'), L. Zerbato (81'), L. Boldini (84').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero in Caldiero.