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Cattolica vs Ambrosiana — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cattolica
Cattolica
FT
1 – 0
Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
9/26/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 2Stadio Giorgio Calbi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cattolica25%
×Draw27%
Ambrosiana48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cattolica
0.96
Ambrosiana
1.44

Ambrosiana creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cattolica
0.65
Ambrosiana
1.16

allows per match

Cattolica
1.71
Ambrosiana
1.26

finishing

Cattolica+0.00on par
Ambrosiana+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cattolica ↓

Ambrosiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cattolica or draw
52%
Cattolica or Ambrosiana
73%
Draw or Ambrosiana
75%

Winning margin

Cattolica wins by 2+
9%
Ambrosiana wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cattolica 1+ goals
62%
Cattolica 2+ goals
25%
Cattolica 3+ goals
7%
Ambrosiana 1+ goals
76%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
42%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cattolica (draw refunded)
34%
Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cattolica at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Ambrosiana away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cattolica attack 0.65 + Ambrosiana defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ambrosiana attack 1.16 + Cattolica defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cattolica scores more
25%
level
27%
Ambrosiana scores more
48%

Ambrosiana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cattolica 1–0 Ambrosiana

Cattolica beat Ambrosiana 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Giorgio Calbi in Cattolica.