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Ambrosiana vs Cattolica — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cattolica
Cattolica
A. Russotto 55'
Unknown 67'
2/6/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 19Stadio Montindon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ambrosiana58%
×Draw23%
Cattolica20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.84
Cattolica
0.97

Ambrosiana creates 90% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Cattolica
0.53

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Cattolica
1.88

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Cattolica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Cattolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
80%
Ambrosiana or Cattolica
77%
Draw or Cattolica
42%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
33%
Cattolica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
84%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
55%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
28%
Cattolica 1+ goals
62%
Cattolica 2+ goals
25%
Cattolica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
75%
Cattolica (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Cattolica away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Cattolica defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Cattolica attack 0.53 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
58%
level
23%
Cattolica scores more
20%

Ambrosiana at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
A. Russotto
67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ambrosiana vs Cattolica

Ambrosiana and Cattolica drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 6, 2022.

Goals: A. Russotto (55'), ? (67').

The match was played at Stadio Montindon in Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella.