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Castilleja vs Cabecense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Castilleja
Castilleja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cabecense
Cabecense
4/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Castilleja48%
×Draw27%
Cabecense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castilleja
1.38
Cabecense
0.91

Castilleja creates 52% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

Castilleja
0.97
Cabecense
0.49

allows per match

Castilleja
1.32
Cabecense
1.79

finishing

Castilleja+0.00on par
Cabecense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castilleja ↓

Cabecense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Castilleja or draw
75%
Castilleja or Cabecense
73%
Draw or Cabecense
52%

Winning margin

Castilleja wins by 2+
23%
Cabecense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Castilleja 1+ goals
75%
Castilleja 2+ goals
40%
Castilleja 3+ goals
16%
Cabecense 1+ goals
60%
Cabecense 2+ goals
23%
Cabecense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Castilleja (draw refunded)
66%
Cabecense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castilleja at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Cabecense away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castilleja attack 0.97 + Cabecense defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cabecense attack 0.49 + Castilleja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Castilleja scores more
48%
level
27%
Cabecense scores more
25%

Castilleja at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Castilleja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castilleja vs Cabecense

Castilleja and Cabecense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro in Castilleja de la Cuesta.