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Cabecense vs Castilleja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cabecense
Cabecense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Castilleja
Castilleja
5/26/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cabecense43%
×Draw26%
Castilleja30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabecense
1.41
Castilleja
1.14

Cabecense creates 24% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cabecense
1.11
Castilleja
0.94

allows per match

Cabecense
1.34
Castilleja
1.71

finishing

Cabecense+0.00on par
Castilleja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabecense ↓

Castilleja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cabecense or draw
70%
Cabecense or Castilleja
74%
Draw or Castilleja
57%

Winning margin

Cabecense wins by 2+
21%
Castilleja wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cabecense 1+ goals
76%
Cabecense 2+ goals
41%
Cabecense 3+ goals
17%
Castilleja 1+ goals
68%
Castilleja 2+ goals
32%
Castilleja 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cabecense (draw refunded)
59%
Castilleja (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabecense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

Castilleja away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabecense attack 1.11 + Castilleja defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Castilleja attack 0.94 + Cabecense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cabecense scores more
43%
level
26%
Castilleja scores more
30%

Cabecense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cabecense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cabecense vs Castilleja

Cabecense and Castilleja drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena in Las Cabezas de San Juan.