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Castilleja vs Bollullos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Castilleja
Castilleja
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bollullos
Bollullos
2/28/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Castilleja37%
×Draw29%
Bollullos34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castilleja
1.17
Bollullos
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 67 away

creates per match

Castilleja
0.97
Bollullos
0.88

allows per match

Castilleja
1.32
Bollullos
1.36

finishing

Castilleja+0.00on par
Bollullos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castilleja ↓

Bollullos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Castilleja or draw
66%
Castilleja or Bollullos
71%
Draw or Bollullos
63%

Winning margin

Castilleja wins by 2+
16%
Bollullos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Castilleja 1+ goals
69%
Castilleja 2+ goals
33%
Castilleja 3+ goals
11%
Bollullos 1+ goals
67%
Bollullos 2+ goals
30%
Bollullos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Castilleja (draw refunded)
52%
Bollullos (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castilleja at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Bollullos away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castilleja attack 0.97 + Bollullos defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bollullos attack 0.88 + Castilleja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Castilleja scores more
37%
level
29%
Bollullos scores more
34%

Castilleja at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Castilleja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Castilleja 0–1 Bollullos

Bollullos beat Castilleja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro in Castilleja de la Cuesta.