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Bollullos vs Castilleja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Bollullos
Bollullos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castilleja
Castilleja
10/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 7Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bollullos50%
×Draw26%
Castilleja24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollullos
1.51
Castilleja
0.97

Bollullos creates 56% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bollullos
1.31
Castilleja
0.94

allows per match

Bollullos
1.00
Castilleja
1.71

finishing

Bollullos+0.00on par
Castilleja+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollullos ↓

Castilleja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bollullos or draw
76%
Bollullos or Castilleja
74%
Draw or Castilleja
50%

Winning margin

Bollullos wins by 2+
25%
Castilleja wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bollullos 1+ goals
78%
Bollullos 2+ goals
44%
Bollullos 3+ goals
19%
Castilleja 1+ goals
62%
Castilleja 2+ goals
25%
Castilleja 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bollullos (draw refunded)
67%
Castilleja (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollullos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 67 matches

Castilleja away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollullos attack 1.31 + Castilleja defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

Castilleja attack 0.94 + Bollullos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bollullos scores more
50%
level
26%
Castilleja scores more
24%

Bollullos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bollullos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bollullos vs Castilleja

Bollullos beat Castilleja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos in Bollullos Par del Condado.