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Castilleja vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Castilleja
Castilleja
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Castilleja32%
×Draw31%
Atlético Central37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castilleja
0.94
Atlético Central
1.04

Atlético Central creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

creates per match

Castilleja
0.97
Atlético Central
0.77

allows per match

Castilleja
1.32
Atlético Central
0.91

finishing

Castilleja+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castilleja ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Castilleja or draw
63%
Castilleja or Atlético Central
69%
Draw or Atlético Central
68%

Winning margin

Castilleja wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Castilleja 1+ goals
61%
Castilleja 2+ goals
24%
Castilleja 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Castilleja (draw refunded)
46%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castilleja at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castilleja attack 0.97 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Castilleja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Castilleja scores more
32%
level
31%
Atlético Central scores more
37%

Atlético Central at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Castilleja 0 – 1 Atlético Central

Atlético Central beat Castilleja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro in Castilleja de la Cuesta.