Atlético Central 2–1 Castilleja: Result & Stats

Atlético Central

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Castilleja

4/2/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 29Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Central57%

×Draw24%

Castilleja19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CentralExpected goals in this matchCastilleja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.84

Atlético Central

1.66

Castilleja

0.84

Atlético Central creates 98% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 31 away

1.61

creates per match

0.94

0.75

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Atlético Central

1.61

Castilleja

0.94

allows per match

Atlético Central

0.75

Castilleja

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par

Castilleja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Castilleja →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw

81%

Atlético Central or Castilleja

76%

Draw or Castilleja

43%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+

31%

Castilleja wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals

81%

Atlético Central 2+ goals

49%

Atlético Central 3+ goals

23%

Castilleja 1+ goals

57%

Castilleja 2+ goals

21%

Castilleja 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)

75%

Castilleja (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Castilleja away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Castilleja defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Castilleja attack 0.94 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Central scores more

57%

level

24%

Castilleja scores more

19%

Atlético Central at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Castilleja

Atlético Central beat Castilleja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá in Alcalá de Guadaíra.

Atlético Central vs Castilleja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Castilleja