Castellón 1–0 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Las Palmas

I. Suero 76'

11/30/2025

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal de Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Castellón46%

×Draw24%

Las Palmas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Castellón

1.64

Las Palmas

1.25

Castellón creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.76

creates per match

1.15

1.36

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Castellón

1.76

Las Palmas

1.15

allows per match

Castellón

1.36

Las Palmas

1.52

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Castellón+0.49scores more

Las Palmas-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

71%

Castellón or Las Palmas

76%

Draw or Las Palmas

54%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

24%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

81%

Castellón 2+ goals

49%

Castellón 3+ goals

23%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

71%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

36%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

61%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 8 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.76 + Las Palmas defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Las Palmas attack 1.15 + Castellón defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Castellón scores more

46%

level

24%

Las Palmas scores more

29%

Castellón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Jimenez

Castellón · D

8.5

Match Events

23'

Enrique Clemente

43'

Diego Barri

55'

Ousmane Camara

58'

M. Doue← Barri

58'

B. Cipenga← P. Santiago

66'

Alberto Jiménez

67'

Mika Mármol

68'

I. Gil← Pejino

71'

I. Suero← A. Sienra

71'

N. Markanich← O. Camara

76'

I. Suero↳ B. Cipenga

78'

J. Viera← M. Fuster

78'

Jese← E. Loiodice

83'

F. Brignani← A. Calatrava

86'

C. Gutierrez← E. Clemente

86'

I. Gonzalez← L. Amatucci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónLas

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots10

1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.49

3Corners3

14Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots10

5On Target1

7Off Target3

6Blocked6

13Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

395Total Passes485

307Accurate Passes379

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2

Segunda División: Castellón 1–0 Las Palmas

Castellón beat Las Palmas 1-0 in Segunda División on November 30, 2025.

Goals: I. Suero (76').

Las Palmas controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Castalia in Castellon.

Castellón vs Las Palmas — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Castellón 1–0 Las Palmas