Castellón 4–0 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Las Palmas

Jamelli 81', 70'

Jorge Fernández 58'

Marc Mateu 19' (pen)

2/27/2021

Segunda División · Round 27Nou Estadi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Castellón46%

×Draw24%

Las Palmas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Castellón

1.64

Las Palmas

1.25

Castellón creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.76

creates per match

1.15

1.36

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Castellón

1.76

Las Palmas

1.15

allows per match

Castellón

1.36

Las Palmas

1.52

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Castellón+0.49scores more

Las Palmas-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

71%

Castellón or Las Palmas

76%

Draw or Las Palmas

54%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

24%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

81%

Castellón 2+ goals

49%

Castellón 3+ goals

23%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

71%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

36%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

61%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 8 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.76 + Las Palmas defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Las Palmas attack 1.15 + Castellón defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Castellón scores more

46%

level

24%

Las Palmas scores more

29%

Castellón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jamelli

Castellón · F

8.7

Match Events

15'

Javi Moyano

18'

Yann BodigerGoal cancelled

19'

Marc MateuPenalty

24'

27'

27'

32'

42'

45'

45'

46'

Fabio González← Dani Castellano

46'

Edu Espiau← Rafa Mújica

56'

Pejiño

58'

Jorge Fernández↳ Jamelli

59'

Kirian Rodríguez← Javi Castellano

59'

Jesé← Pejiño

61'

Arturo Molina← César Díaz

70'

Jamelli↳ Arturo Molina

74'

Rafa Gálvez← Jorge Fernández

75'

T. Cardona← Éric Curbelo

81'

Jamelli↳ Marc Mateu

87'

Alex Suárez

87'

I. Zlatanović← Jamelli

87'

Luís Gustavo← Marc Mateu

87'

Carles Salvador← Javi Moyano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónLas

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots11

3Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots11

6On Target4

1Off Target5

1Blocked2

7Inside Box5

1Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

322Total Passes551

233Accurate Passes464

72%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1

Segunda División: Castellón 4–0 Las Palmas

Castellón beat Las Palmas 4-0 in Segunda División on February 27, 2021.

Goals: Marc Mateu (19' pen), Jorge Fernández (58'), Jamelli (70', 81').

Las Palmas controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.

Castellón vs Las Palmas — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Castellón 4–0 Las Palmas