Casric Stars 0–1 Ajax Cape Town: Result & Stats

Casric Stars

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ajax Cape Town

5/28/2023

Premier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1Solomon Mahlangu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Casric Stars28%

×Draw32%

Ajax Cape Town40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Casric StarsExpected goals in this matchAjax Cape Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.04

Casric Stars

0.81

Ajax Cape Town

1.04

Ajax Cape Town creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

0.25

creates per match

0.84

1.25

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Casric Stars

0.25

Ajax Cape Town

0.84

allows per match

Casric Stars

1.25

Ajax Cape Town

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Casric Stars+0.00on par

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casric Stars ↓

Ajax Cape Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Casric Stars or draw

60%

Casric Stars or Ajax Cape Town

68%

Draw or Ajax Cape Town

72%

Winning margin

Casric Stars wins by 2+

9%

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Casric Stars 1+ goals

56%

Casric Stars 2+ goals

19%

Casric Stars 3+ goals

5%

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

65%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

28%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Casric Stars (draw refunded)

41%

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casric Stars at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Ajax Cape Town away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casric Stars attack 0.25 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.81

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.84 + Casric Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Casric Stars scores more

28%

level

32%

Ajax Cape Town scores more

40%

Ajax Cape Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ajax Cape Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Casric Stars 0–1 Ajax Cape Town

Ajax Cape Town beat Casric Stars 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Solomon Mahlangu Stadium in KwaMhlanga.

Casric Stars vs Ajax Cape Town — Premier Soccer League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Premier Soccer League: Casric Stars 0–1 Ajax Cape Town