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Ajax Cape Town vs Casric Stars — Premier Soccer League 2018

Ajax Cape Town
Ajax Cape Town
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Casric Stars
Casric Stars
6/7/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1Athlone Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ajax Cape Town40%
×Draw34%
Casric Stars26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Cape Town
0.97
Casric Stars
0.73

Ajax Cape Town creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ajax Cape Town
0.95
Casric Stars
0.25

allows per match

Ajax Cape Town
1.21
Casric Stars
1.00

finishing

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par
Casric Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Cape Town ↓

Casric Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ajax Cape Town or draw
74%
Ajax Cape Town or Casric Stars
66%
Draw or Casric Stars
60%

Winning margin

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+
15%
Casric Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals
62%
Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals
25%
Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals
7%
Casric Stars 1+ goals
52%
Casric Stars 2+ goals
17%
Casric Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)
60%
Casric Stars (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Cape Town at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Casric Stars away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.95 + Casric Stars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Casric Stars attack 0.25 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ajax Cape Town scores more
40%
level
34%
Casric Stars scores more
26%

Ajax Cape Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ajax Cape Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Ajax Cape Town 1–0 Casric Stars

Ajax Cape Town beat Casric Stars 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on June 7, 2023.

The match was played at Athlone Stadium in Cape Town, WC.