Caspe 0–1 Andorra CF: Result & Stats

Caspe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Andorra CF

12/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 15Estadio Los Rosales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Caspe48%

×Draw28%

Andorra CF24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaspeExpected goals in this matchAndorra CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.84

Caspe

1.31

Andorra CF

0.84

Caspe creates 56% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 34 away

1.34

creates per match

0.74

0.95

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Caspe

1.34

Andorra CF

0.74

allows per match

Caspe

0.95

Andorra CF

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caspe+0.00on par

Andorra CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caspe ↓

Andorra CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Caspe or draw

76%

Caspe or Andorra CF

72%

Draw or Andorra CF

52%

Winning margin

Caspe wins by 2+

22%

Andorra CF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Caspe 1+ goals

73%

Caspe 2+ goals

38%

Caspe 3+ goals

14%

Andorra CF 1+ goals

57%

Andorra CF 2+ goals

21%

Andorra CF 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Caspe (draw refunded)

67%

Andorra CF (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caspe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.95 · 83 matches

Andorra CF away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caspe attack 1.34 + Andorra CF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Andorra CF attack 0.74 + Caspe defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caspe scores more

48%

level

28%

Andorra CF scores more

24%

Caspe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caspe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff