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Andorra CF vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Andorra CF
Andorra CF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caspe
Caspe
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 32Estadio Juan Antonio Endeiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Andorra CF40%
×Draw29%
Caspe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andorra CF
1.20
Caspe
1.02

Andorra CF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 83 away

creates per match

Andorra CF
1.29
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Andorra CF
1.15
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Andorra CF+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andorra CF ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Andorra CF or draw
69%
Andorra CF or Caspe
71%
Draw or Caspe
60%

Winning margin

Andorra CF wins by 2+
17%
Caspe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Andorra CF 1+ goals
70%
Andorra CF 2+ goals
34%
Andorra CF 3+ goals
12%
Caspe 1+ goals
64%
Caspe 2+ goals
27%
Caspe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Andorra CF (draw refunded)
56%
Caspe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andorra CF at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andorra CF attack 1.29 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Caspe attack 0.89 + Andorra CF defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Andorra CF scores more
40%
level
29%
Caspe scores more
31%

Andorra CF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Andorra CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andorra CF vs Caspe

Andorra CF and Caspe drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Endeiza in Teruel.