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Casalarreina vs Alfaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Casalarreina
Casalarreina
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alfaro
Alfaro
3/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Campo de Fútbol El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Casalarreina34%
×Draw23%
Alfaro43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casalarreina
1.48
Alfaro
1.69

Alfaro creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 59 away

creates per match

Casalarreina
1.81
Alfaro
1.80

allows per match

Casalarreina
1.58
Alfaro
1.14

finishing

Casalarreina+0.00on par
Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casalarreina ↓

Alfaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Casalarreina or draw
57%
Casalarreina or Alfaro
77%
Draw or Alfaro
66%

Winning margin

Casalarreina wins by 2+
16%
Alfaro wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Casalarreina 1+ goals
77%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
43%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
19%
Alfaro 1+ goals
82%
Alfaro 2+ goals
50%
Alfaro 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Casalarreina (draw refunded)
44%
Alfaro (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casalarreina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casalarreina attack 1.81 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alfaro attack 1.80 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Casalarreina scores more
34%
level
23%
Alfaro scores more
43%

Alfaro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Casalarreina 1–2 Alfaro

Alfaro beat Casalarreina 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Soto in Casalarreina.