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Alfaro vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alfaro
Alfaro
CANC
00:00
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 32Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro53%
×Draw22%
Casalarreina24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfaro
1.90
Casalarreina
1.21

Alfaro creates 57% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 91 away

creates per match

Alfaro
2.22
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Alfaro
1.07
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw
76%
Alfaro or Casalarreina
78%
Draw or Casalarreina
47%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+
31%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals
85%
Alfaro 2+ goals
56%
Alfaro 3+ goals
29%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
70%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
34%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)
69%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alfaro scores more
53%
level
22%
Casalarreina scores more
24%

Alfaro at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alfaro host Casalarreina

April 5, 2020: Alfaro take on Casalarreina in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alfaro host Casalarreina at Estadio La Molineta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.