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Casa Pia vs Nacional — Taça de Portugal 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nacional
Nacionaladvanced
2/9/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Quarter-finalsEstádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Casa Pia46%
×Draw21%
Nacional33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
2.04
Nacional
1.71

Casa Pia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
2.20
Nacional
2.22

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.20
Nacional
1.89

finishing

Casa Pia+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
67%
Casa Pia or Nacional
79%
Draw or Nacional
54%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
26%
Nacional wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
87%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
60%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
33%
Nacional 1+ goals
82%
Nacional 2+ goals
51%
Nacional 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
58%
Nacional (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Nacional away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 2.20 + Nacional defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.04

Nacional attack 2.22 + Casa Pia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Casa Pia scores more
46%
level
21%
Nacional scores more
33%

Casa Pia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casa Pia vs Nacional

Casa Pia and Nacional drew 2-2 in Taça de Portugal on February 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.