Casa Pia 3–1 Benfica: Result & Stats

Casa Pia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Benfica

J. Livolant 90+4'

Nuno Moreira 60'

Cassiano 32'

Á. Di María 14' (pen)

1/25/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 19Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Casa Pia20%

×Draw24%

Benfica57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Casa PiaExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.74

Casa Pia

0.91

Benfica

1.74

Benfica creates 91% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

0.91

creates per match

1.79

1.69

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Casa Pia

0.91

Benfica

1.79

allows per match

Casa Pia

1.69

Benfica

0.91

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Casa Pia+0.40scores more

Benfica+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw

43%

Casa Pia or Benfica

76%

Draw or Benfica

80%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+

6%

Benfica wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals

60%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

23%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

6%

Benfica 1+ goals

82%

Benfica 2+ goals

52%

Benfica 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

26%

Benfica (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.91 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 0.91 + Benfica defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Benfica attack 1.79 + Casa Pia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Casa Pia scores more

20%

level

24%

Benfica scores more

57%

Benfica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

O. Kökçü

Benfica · M

8.2

Match Events

14'

Á. Di MaríaPenalty

32'

Cassiano↳ Beni

38'

Nuno MoreiraPenalty cancelled

60'

Nuno Moreira↳ Gaizka Larrazabal

65'

Max Svensson← Cassiano

69'

V. Pavlidis← Florentino

69'

A. Schjelderup← K. Aktürkoğlu

74'

André Geraldes← Gaizka Larrazabal

74'

Miguel Sousa← Rafael Brito

79'

Nuno Moreira

81'

Z. Amdouni← Arthur Cabral

81'

F. Aursnes← Á. Di María

81'

Manu← L. Barreiro

82'

Miguel Sousa

87'

Pablo Roberto← Nuno Moreira

88'

R. Kluivert← José Fonte

90+4'

J. Livolant↳ Max Svensson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CasaBenfica

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots19

1.25Expected Goals (xG)1.93

2Corners9

12Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots19

3On Target7

4Off Target5

1Blocked7

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

345Total Passes527

270Accurate Passes443

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

-2.01Goals Prevented-2.01

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0