Benfica 3–0 Casa Pia: Result & Stats

Benfica

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Casa Pia

F. Aursnes 90'

Tiago Gouveia 80'

V. Pavlidis 70'

8/17/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 2Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Benfica66%

×Draw20%

Casa Pia14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchCasa Pia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.81

Benfica

2.05

Casa Pia

0.81

Benfica creates 153% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

2.38

creates per match

0.85

0.78

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Benfica

2.38

Casa Pia

0.85

allows per match

Benfica

0.78

Casa Pia

1.73

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Benfica+0.42scores more

Casa Pia-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Casa Pia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

86%

Benfica or Casa Pia

80%

Draw or Casa Pia

34%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

41%

Casa Pia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

87%

Benfica 2+ goals

61%

Benfica 3+ goals

33%

Casa Pia 1+ goals

56%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

19%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

83%

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.78 · 20 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.38 + Casa Pia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.05

Casa Pia attack 0.85 + Benfica defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Benfica scores more

66%

level

20%

Casa Pia scores more

14%

Benfica at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

F. Aursnes

Benfica · M

8.6

Match Events

20'

Álvaro Fernández← J. Beste

59'

T. Segovia← Miguel Sousa

59'

Raúl Blanco← Pablo Roberto

65'

Tiago Gouveia← João Mário

65'

Marcos Leonardo← G. Prestianni

65'

O. Kökçü← L. Barreiro

67'

Telasco Segovia

70'

V. Pavlidis↳ Tiago Gouveia

77'

Tiago Dias← Nuno Moreira

77'

Max Svensson← S. Obeng

80'

Tiago Gouveia↳ F. Aursnes

85'

N. Otamendi← Tomás Araújo

87'

André Geraldes← Gaizka Larrazabal

90'

F. Aursnes↳ O. Kökçü

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BenficaCasa

Overview

63%Possession37%

27Total Shots6

2.50Expected Goals (xG)0.29

12Corners2

6Fouls14

Shots

27Total Shots6

8On Target1

12Off Target3

7Blocked2

18Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

523Total Passes306

451Accurate Passes221

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

-0.34Goals Prevented-0.34

Discipline

6Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1