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Casa Pia vs Arouca — Primeira Liga 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arouca
Arouca
2/18/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 22Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Casa Pia41%
×Draw26%
Arouca33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
1.40
Arouca
1.24

Casa Pia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
0.92
Arouca
0.87

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.61
Arouca
1.87

finishing

Casa Pia+0.26scores more
Arouca+0.13scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
67%
Casa Pia or Arouca
74%
Draw or Arouca
59%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
19%
Arouca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
75%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
41%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
17%
Arouca 1+ goals
71%
Arouca 2+ goals
35%
Arouca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
55%
Arouca (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

Arouca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.87 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 0.92 + Arouca defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.40

Arouca attack 0.87 + Casa Pia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Casa Pia scores more
41%
level
26%
Arouca scores more
33%

Casa Pia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Casa Pia 1–0 Arouca

Casa Pia beat Arouca 1-0 in Primeira Liga on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.