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Arouca vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga 2018

Arouca
Arouca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
5/4/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 32Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Arouca43%
×Draw27%
Casa Pia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arouca
1.39
Casa Pia
1.11

Arouca creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

Arouca
1.09
Casa Pia
0.89

allows per match

Arouca
1.33
Casa Pia
1.68

finishing

Arouca+0.36scores more
Casa Pia-0.18scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arouca ↓

Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arouca or draw
70%
Arouca or Casa Pia
73%
Draw or Casa Pia
57%

Winning margin

Arouca wins by 2+
20%
Casa Pia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arouca 1+ goals
75%
Arouca 2+ goals
40%
Arouca 3+ goals
16%
Casa Pia 1+ goals
67%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
30%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arouca (draw refunded)
59%
Casa Pia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arouca at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.33 · 20 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arouca attack 1.09 + Casa Pia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Casa Pia attack 0.89 + Arouca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arouca scores more
43%
level
27%
Casa Pia scores more
30%

Arouca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Arouca 0–0 Casa Pia

Arouca and Casa Pia drew 0-0 in Primeira Liga on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Arouca.