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Cartigliano vs Arzignano Valchiampo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
L. Sarli 90+4'
Y. G. Gnago 78'
D. Forte 55'
2/20/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 21Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cartigliano29%
×Draw24%
Arzignano Valchiampo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.25
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.67

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
Arzignano Valchiampo
2.06

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.06

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Arzignano Valchiampo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
53%
Cartigliano or Arzignano Valchiampo
76%
Draw or Arzignano Valchiampo
71%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
12%
Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
71%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
36%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
13%
Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
81%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
50%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
38%
Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Arzignano Valchiampo away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.06 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cartigliano scores more
29%
level
24%
Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
47%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
D. Forte
78'
Y. G. Gnago
90+4'
L. Sarli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cartigliano 0–3 Arzignano Valchiampo

Arzignano Valchiampo beat Cartigliano 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 20, 2022.

Goals: D. Forte (55'), Y. G. Gnago (78'), L. Sarli (90+4').

The match was played at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano in Cartigliano.