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Arzignano Valchiampo vs Cartigliano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
FT
3 – 0
Cartigliano
Cartigliano
S. Fyda 90+1'
Y. G. Gnago 53'
V. Cali 38'
10/10/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 4Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arzignano Valchiampo54%
×Draw23%
Cartigliano23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzignano Valchiampo
1.83
Cartigliano
1.13

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
2.29
Cartigliano
1.43

allows per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
0.82
Cartigliano
1.37

finishing

Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par
Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzignano Valchiampo ↓

Cartigliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Arzignano Valchiampo or draw
77%
Arzignano Valchiampo or Cartigliano
77%
Draw or Cartigliano
46%

Winning margin

Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
30%
Cartigliano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
84%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
54%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
28%
Cartigliano 1+ goals
68%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
31%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
70%
Cartigliano (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzignano Valchiampo at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.29 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.83

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
54%
level
23%
Cartigliano scores more
23%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
V. Cali
53'
Y. G. Gnago
90+1'
S. Fyda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Arzignano Valchiampo 3–0 Cartigliano

Arzignano Valchiampo beat Cartigliano 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 10, 2021.

Goals: V. Cali (38'), Y. G. Gnago (53'), S. Fyda (90+1').

The match was played at Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin in Arzignano.