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Cartaya vs Atlético Onubense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cartaya
Cartaya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Pedro Jurado Hachero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cartaya36%
×Draw29%
Atlético Onubense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartaya
1.12
Atlético Onubense
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cartaya
1.06
Atlético Onubense
1.35

allows per match

Cartaya
0.86
Atlético Onubense
1.18

finishing

Cartaya+0.00on par
Atlético Onubense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartaya ↓

Atlético Onubense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cartaya or draw
65%
Cartaya or Atlético Onubense
71%
Draw or Atlético Onubense
64%

Winning margin

Cartaya wins by 2+
15%
Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cartaya 1+ goals
67%
Cartaya 2+ goals
31%
Cartaya 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cartaya (draw refunded)
51%
Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartaya at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 65 matches

Atlético Onubense away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartaya attack 1.06 + Atlético Onubense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atlético Onubense attack 1.35 + Cartaya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cartaya scores more
36%
level
29%
Atlético Onubense scores more
35%

Cartaya at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cartaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Cartaya 1–0 Atlético Onubense

Cartaya beat Atlético Onubense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Jurado Hachero in Cartaya.