Atlético Onubense 3–0 Cartaya: Result & Stats

Atlético Onubense

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cartaya

4/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 29Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Onubense48%

×Draw28%

Cartaya24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético OnubenseExpected goals in this matchCartaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.85

Atlético Onubense

1.35

Cartaya

0.85

Atlético Onubense creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 65 away

1.06

creates per match

0.82

0.89

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Atlético Onubense

1.06

Cartaya

0.82

allows per match

Atlético Onubense

0.89

Cartaya

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Onubense+0.00on par

Cartaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Onubense ↓

Cartaya →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Onubense or draw

76%

Atlético Onubense or Cartaya

72%

Draw or Cartaya

52%

Winning margin

Atlético Onubense wins by 2+

23%

Cartaya wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Onubense 1+ goals

74%

Atlético Onubense 2+ goals

39%

Atlético Onubense 3+ goals

15%

Cartaya 1+ goals

57%

Cartaya 2+ goals

21%

Cartaya 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)

67%

Cartaya (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Onubense at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Cartaya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Onubense attack 1.06 + Cartaya defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cartaya attack 0.82 + Atlético Onubense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Onubense scores more

48%

level

28%

Cartaya scores more

24%

Atlético Onubense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Onubense 3–0 Cartaya

Atlético Onubense beat Cartaya 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez in Huelva.

Atlético Onubense vs Cartaya — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Onubense 3–0 Cartaya