Cartagena LU II 2–0 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Cartagena LU II

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Josema Vivancos 50', 32'

10/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cartagena LU II50%

×Draw27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena LU IIExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.92

Cartagena LU II

1.46

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.92

Cartagena LU II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 78 away

1.47

creates per match

0.85

0.98

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Cartagena LU II

1.47

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Cartagena LU II

0.98

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw

76%

Cartagena LU II or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

73%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

50%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+

25%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals

77%

Cartagena LU II 2+ goals

43%

Cartagena LU II 3+ goals

18%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

60%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)

68%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more

50%

level

27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

24%

Cartagena LU II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Josema Vivancos

46'

Álvaro Betancourt← José Mari

46'

Javi Muñoz← Alberto Martínez

50'

Josema Vivancos

55'

Diego de Pedro← Kevin Laosa

55'

Juan Castelló← Edu Martínez

55'

Fede← Revilla

60'

Diego Cárceles← Jaime

70'

Pablo Guillen← Alejandro Pérez

70'

Miguel← Matías

72'

Antonio López← Josema Vivancos

82'

Pedro Cárceles← Samuel Martínez

Cartagena

CAP

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Vivancos

▼

Revilla

Manager: Aguilar

46'▲Álvaro Betancourt←▼José Mari

55'▲Diego de Pedro←▼Kevin Laosa

55'▲Juan Castelló←▼Edu Martínez

55'▲Fede←▼Revilla

72'▲Antonio López←▼Josema Vivancos

Cartagena LU II substitutes

BetancourtPedroCastellóFedeLópez

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

46'▲Javi Muñoz←▼Alberto Martínez

60'▲Diego Cárceles←▼Jaime

70'▲Pablo Guillen←▼Alejandro Pérez

70'▲Miguel←▼Matías

82'▲Pedro Cárceles←▼Samuel Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

MuñozCárcelesGuillenMiguelCárceles

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Cartagena LU II beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 13, 2021.

Goals: Josema Vivancos (32', 50').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.

Cartagena LU II vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia