CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2–0 Cartagena LU II

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cartagena LU II

Samuel Martínez 70'

Diego Cárceles 31'

2/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia38%

×Draw29%

Cartagena LU II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchCartagena LU II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.04

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.14

Cartagena LU II

1.04

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 51 away

1.03

creates per match

1.04

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Cartagena LU II

1.04

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Cartagena LU II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Cartagena LU II →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

67%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Cartagena LU II

71%

Draw or Cartagena LU II

62%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

16%

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

68%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

32%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

11%

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals

65%

Cartagena LU II 2+ goals

28%

Cartagena LU II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

54%

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

38%

level

29%

Cartagena LU II scores more

33%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Diego Cárceles

46'

Samuel Mayo← Gastón Alonso

54'

Josema Vivancos← Antonio López

64'

Fede← Dani Albiar

66'

Trucha← Franco

70'

Samuel Martínez

72'

Adrian Marty← Edu Martínez

80'

Matías← Pablo Guillen

90'

Alejandro Molina← Samuel Martínez

90'

Iván Pérez← David Valverde

CAP

Cartagena

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Martínez

Muñoz

▼

Valverde

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

66'▲Trucha←▼Franco

80'▲Matías←▼Pablo Guillen

90'▲Alejandro Molina←▼Samuel Martínez

90'▲Iván Pérez←▼David Valverde

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

TruchaMatíasMolinaPérez

Manager: Aguilar

46'▲Samuel Mayo←▼Gastón Alonso

54'▲Josema Vivancos←▼Antonio López

64'▲Fede←▼Dani Albiar

72'▲Adrian Marty←▼Edu Martínez

Cartagena LU II substitutes

MayoVivancosFedeMarty

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Cartagena LU II

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Cartagena LU II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 20, 2022.

Goals: Diego Cárceles (31'), Samuel Martínez (70').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Cartagena LU II