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Cartagena LU II vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bala Azul
Bala Azul
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Campos de Fútbol Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cartagena LU II47%
×Draw27%
Bala Azul25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.39
Bala Azul
0.94

Cartagena LU II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
Bala Azul
0.90

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
Bala Azul
1.31

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Bala Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
75%
Cartagena LU II or Bala Azul
73%
Draw or Bala Azul
53%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
23%
Bala Azul wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
75%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
40%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
16%
Bala Azul 1+ goals
61%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
24%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
65%
Bala Azul (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
47%
level
27%
Bala Azul scores more
25%

Cartagena LU II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena LU II 0 – 0 Bala Azul

Cartagena LU II and Bala Azul drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campos de Fútbol Mundial 82 in Cartagena.