Bala Azul 2–1 Cartagena LU II: Result & Stats

Bala Azul

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cartagena LU II

12/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bala Azul42%

×Draw30%

Cartagena LU II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bala AzulExpected goals in this matchCartagena LU II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.92

Bala Azul

1.19

Cartagena LU II

0.92

Bala Azul creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

1.12

creates per match

1.04

0.80

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Bala Azul

1.12

Cartagena LU II

1.04

allows per match

Bala Azul

0.80

Cartagena LU II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Cartagena LU II →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw

72%

Bala Azul or Cartagena LU II

70%

Draw or Cartagena LU II

58%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+

18%

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals

70%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

33%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

12%

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals

60%

Cartagena LU II 2+ goals

23%

Cartagena LU II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

60%

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bala Azul scores more

42%

level

30%

Cartagena LU II scores more

28%

Bala Azul at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bala Azul vs Cartagena LU II

Bala Azul beat Cartagena LU II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón in Mazarrón.

Bala Azul vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bala Azul vs Cartagena LU II