Cartagena LU II 2–0 Archena Sport: Result & Stats

Cartagena LU II

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Archena Sport

11/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cartagena LU II45%

×Draw27%

Archena Sport28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena LU IIExpected goals in this matchArchena Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Cartagena LU II

1.38

Archena Sport

1.02

Cartagena LU II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.47

creates per match

1.06

0.98

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Cartagena LU II

1.47

Archena Sport

1.06

allows per match

Cartagena LU II

0.98

Archena Sport

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Archena Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Archena Sport →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw

72%

Cartagena LU II or Archena Sport

73%

Draw or Archena Sport

55%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+

21%

Archena Sport wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals

75%

Cartagena LU II 2+ goals

40%

Cartagena LU II 3+ goals

16%

Archena Sport 1+ goals

64%

Archena Sport 2+ goals

27%

Archena Sport 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)

62%

Archena Sport (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Archena Sport away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Archena Sport defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Archena Sport attack 1.06 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more

45%

level

27%

Archena Sport scores more

28%

Cartagena LU II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs Archena Sport

Cartagena LU II beat Archena Sport 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.

Cartagena LU II vs Archena Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs Archena Sport