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Archena Sport vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport40%
×Draw25%
Cartagena LU II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.45
Cartagena LU II
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Cartagena LU II
1.04

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
Cartagena LU II
1.25

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

Cartagena LU II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
65%
Archena Sport or Cartagena LU II
75%
Draw or Cartagena LU II
60%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
19%
Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
77%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
42%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
18%
Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
74%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
39%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
53%
Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Archena Sport scores more
40%
level
25%
Cartagena LU II scores more
35%

Archena Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Archena Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Archena Sport 2 – 1 Cartagena LU II

Archena Sport beat Cartagena LU II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.