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Cartagena II vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena II
Cartagena II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio Lopez Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II54%
×Draw26%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena II
1.54
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.85

Cartagena II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 78 away

creates per match

Cartagena II
1.63
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.85

allows per match

Cartagena II
0.85
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.45

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par
CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw
79%
Cartagena II or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
74%
Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
46%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+
28%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals
79%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
45%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
20%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
57%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
21%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)
72%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cartagena II scores more
54%
level
26%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
21%

Cartagena II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena II 3 – 0 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Cartagena II beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Lopez Belmonte in Cartagena.