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CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia32%
×Draw29%
Cartagena II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.05
Cartagena II
1.19

Cartagena II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 27 away

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.03
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.04
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw
61%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Cartagena II
71%
Draw or Cartagena II
68%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
12%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
65%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
28%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
9%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
70%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
33%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
45%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
32%
level
29%
Cartagena II scores more
39%

Cartagena II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2–2 Cartagena II

CAP Ciudad de Murcia and Cartagena II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.