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Cartagena II vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena II
Cartagena II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II42%
×Draw29%
Atlético Pulpileño30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena II
1.24
Atlético Pulpileño
1.00

Cartagena II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 93 away

creates per match

Cartagena II
1.63
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Cartagena II
0.85
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw
70%
Cartagena II or Atlético Pulpileño
71%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
58%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals
71%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
35%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)
58%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cartagena II scores more
42%
level
29%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
30%

Cartagena II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena II vs Atlético Pulpileño

Atlético Pulpileño beat Cartagena II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.