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Atlético Pulpileño vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño41%
×Draw29%
Cartagena II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.22
Cartagena II
1.00

Atlético Pulpileño creates 22% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 27 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
70%
Atlético Pulpileño or Cartagena II
71%
Draw or Cartagena II
59%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
18%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
12%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
63%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
26%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
58%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
41%
level
29%
Cartagena II scores more
30%

Atlético Pulpileño at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Atlético Pulpileño 0–1 Cartagena II

Cartagena II beat Atlético Pulpileño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.