Cartagena II vs Águilas: Preview & Prediction

Cartagena II

CANC

22:00

Águilas

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 37Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II40%

×Draw29%

Águilas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena IIExpected goals in this matchÁguilas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.98

Cartagena II

1.16

Águilas

0.98

Cartagena II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

1.63

creates per match

1.10

0.85

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Cartagena II

1.63

Águilas

1.10

allows per match

Cartagena II

0.85

Águilas

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par

Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Águilas →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw

69%

Cartagena II or Águilas

71%

Draw or Águilas

60%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+

17%

Águilas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals

69%

Cartagena II 2+ goals

32%

Cartagena II 3+ goals

11%

Águilas 1+ goals

62%

Águilas 2+ goals

26%

Águilas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)

56%

Águilas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.16

Águilas attack 1.10 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cartagena II scores more

40%

level

29%

Águilas scores more

31%

Cartagena II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena II vs Águilas — Match Preview

Cartagena II face Águilas on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cartagena II host Águilas at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Cartagena II vs Águilas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Cartagena II vs Águilas — Match Preview